Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s peso may weaken to a range of 21 to 23 against the U.S. dollar if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the election, according to the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Sept. 16-28. The currency will likely trade between 18 and 21 if Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, wins. Below is a chart of the survey results.
The peso strengthened the most against the dollar among its major-currency counterparts after the second U.S. presidential debate, in which both candidates exchanged barbs. It rose 2.4 percent to a one-month high of 18.8316 per dollar as of 10:44 a.m. in New York. The Mexican currency has been a barometer of investor anxiety about the Nov. 8 election, falling when Trump advances in the polls and gaining when he slumps.
Full results:
Firm/Economist Clinton Wins Trump Wins Moody’s: A. Coutino Between 18-21 Between 21-23 Santander: R. Camarena Zavala Between 18-21 Between 21-23 Itau: A. Muller Below 18 Between 21-23 Casa Bolsa Ve Por Mas: Ramirez Below 18 Between 21-23 Banorte-IXE: A. Padilla Between 18-21 Between 21-23 Barclays: M. Oviedo Between 18-21 Between 21-23 Scotiabank: M. Correa Between 18-21 Above 23
Economists were also asked about whether the government’s proposed budget would be sufficient to stave off a ratings downgrade by either Moody’s Investors Service or S&P Global Ratings:
Firm/Economist Answer Santander: R. Camarena Zavala NO Casa Bolsa Ve Por Mas: Ramirez NO Scotiabank: M. Correa NO Itau: A. Muller YES Banorte-IXE: A. Padilla YES Barclays: M. Oviedo YES
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Fecha de publicación: 10/10/2016